On my mind: the value driving AI will not be won at the interface layer.
The current generation of AI companies is focused on interfaces:chatbots, copilots, and APIs. This is not where long-term value accrues.
The highest-value applications of AI are in systems that make decisions under uncertainty, embedded directly into the physical world, like infrastructure, disaster response, energy, and public systems.
These environments are defined by:
- Sparse, delayed, and heterogeneous data
- High consequence of failure
- Regulatory and governance constraints
- Need for continuous, real-time operation
Current AI offerings are structurally incompatible with these constraints.